The California governor's race entered a decisive new phase Monday as former U.S. Attorney General Xavier Becerra claimed the top position in the state's all-party June 3 primary, outpacing Republican commentator Steve Hilton in a contest that will shape the political future of the nation's most populous state for the next four years.
Becerra Holds the Lead as Counting Continues
With roughly 72 percent of expected votes tallied by Monday morning, Becerra, a Democrat, held 27 percent of the vote compared to 26 percent for Hilton, leaving a margin of approximately 95,000 ballots. Billionaire Democratic climate activist Tom Steyer, who spent more than $215 million of his own money on the race, trailed in third place with 22 percent, dealing a significant blow to his campaign's theory that money alone could buy a path to the general election.
Under California's top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election regardless of party. Becerra and Hilton appear poised to claim those spots, though Steyer has not conceded and the count remains ongoing in several large counties including Los Angeles and Alameda. Mail-in ballot processing, which California allows through 30 days after election day, means the certified results will not arrive until at least mid-June.
"We're in a strong position, and when all the votes are counted, we expect to be in the general election," a senior Becerra campaign adviser said Monday. The Hilton campaign, for its part, expressed confidence that its candidate would hold onto second place as more ballots arrived from Republican-leaning inland counties in the days ahead.
A Race That Defines California's Direction
The contest to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited out of office, has drawn unusually intense national attention. Hilton, a British-born former Fox News host, secured a Trump endorsement in January and ran on a platform of aggressive housing deregulation, stricter immigration enforcement, and reversing what he called Sacramento's fiscal recklessness. He campaigned heavily in the Inland Empire, the Central Valley, and exurban communities that have drifted toward Republicans in successive election cycles since 2016.
Becerra, who served as California's attorney general before joining the Biden cabinet as Health and Human Services secretary, positioned himself as the continuity candidate — promising to defend the state's progressive environmental and healthcare policies against what he described as federal overreach from Washington. His coalition skewed heavily toward coastal urban areas, particularly Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and San Diego.
Steyer's entry added a significant wild card. His climate-focused campaign poured resources into digital advertising and grassroots organizing in San Francisco and the Bay Area, but his spending failed to produce the breakthrough his team had anticipated based on early polling that showed him within striking distance of the top two.
What the Numbers Say About California's Electorate
The primary results carry implications well beyond Sacramento. A Becerra-Hilton general election would essentially be a statewide referendum on whether California's liberal electoral dominance holds in a midterm cycle that has seen national Republicans make modest gains in suburban congressional districts. Hilton's 26 percent showing in an electorate that leans heavily Democratic surprised some analysts who had predicted a more decisive Becerra lead at this stage of counting.
"The gap is real but it's not comfortable," said a pollster with ties to California Democratic Party leadership who was not authorized to speak publicly. "Republicans are banking on late mail ballots from Orange County and the Central Valley to close the difference. It's unlikely to flip the order, but it has to be watched."
Early returns showed Becerra running well ahead in Los Angeles County, where Democratic registration advantage is enormous, while Hilton outperformed in San Bernardino, Fresno, and Kern counties. The Bay Area nine-county region split roughly 40-30 for Becerra over Steyer, with Hilton largely an afterthought in the region's liberal enclaves.
The November Preview
If the results hold, California's November general election will pit a career Democratic officeholder against a media personality with direct backing from President Trump — a dynamic that both parties believe will generate enormous fundraising and national turnout consequences.
National Republicans have signaled a willingness to invest significantly in Hilton's general election campaign. "California is not as out of reach as Washington assumes," a national GOP strategist said in a statement released Monday. "Steve Hilton represents an opportunity to put the biggest state in play in a way the party hasn't managed in a generation."
California Democrats, for their part, are treating the race with urgency despite the state's lopsided registration numbers. The Democratic Governors Association has already begun coordinating with the Becerra campaign on voter registration and early vote programs across the state's 58 counties. The party's concern is turnout: in a midterm environment, motivation gaps between an energized Republican base and a complacent Democratic one can compress margins faster than polling models anticipate.
For now, the outcome is not in doubt — Becerra is going to the November ballot. The open question is whether he faces Hilton or Steyer, and which matchup California Democrats would rather have.